Will Industry Land on the Moon?

The Earth’s sole natural satellite, the Moon, has captivated human beings for as long as they’ve existed, which is approximately 200,000 years. Some people swear on their hearts that the full moon disturbs our sleep and provokes dogs to howl. Others considered the source of the Moon’s illumination to be a mystery. Then came 1969, when US astronaut Neil Armstrong became the first man to set foot on the lunar surface and return home safely. Fast-forward more than half a century, and now even more change is in the cards.

Just as Bill Gates wanted a computer on every desk, a new generation of budding entrepreneurs wants to colonize the Moon with businesses. And the projections for how things play out in the next quarter century are audacious. By 2050, almost $90 billion will be invested. On top of that, cumulative revenue over the same period is projected to reach nearly $130 billion. But predicting the future is difficult, especially the version these entrepreneurs are envisioning, and nothing is certain. “In 25 years, a lot could change,” says Robert Jacobson, managing partner of investment consultancy Space Advisors.

The key exploitable areas are energy (including solar power and small nuclear reactors), communications (including the ability to talk to people on Earth), water (for astronauts’ life support and farming fresh food), mobility (such as rovers), and housing. At least these seem to be the goal.

Doing all that is radical, but the approach here differs considerably from the race to get to the Moon in the 1960s, Jacobson says, because the original lunar landings were funded by the state.

“We couldn’t develop the infrastructure,” he says. “It was a government-first initiative.”

Now, however, the approach is commercial. That could ultimately mean private businesses build all the infrastructure, with the government as their customer, Jacobson says.

Of course, there’s much to do before the promise of industry on the Moon manifests. One key element will be to improve the performance of low-Earth-orbit space capsules, which are typically designed to carry cargo, scientific equipment, and astronauts. Some experts point to LambdaVision, a company planning to develop artificial retinas in low-orbit space. Low gravity helps with production, the company says. If their project succeeds, they will sell the retinas back on Earth to help restore sight.

Once low-Earth-orbit capsules are up to snuff, the Moon will clearly be next. “It will make establishing a permanent presence on the Moon, Mars, and asteroids into child’s play,” says Bob Zimmerman, a space historian.

Nevertheless, regulations govern what you can do on the Moon and who can approve a project there. In 1967, the Outer Space Treaty went into force. It was signed by a majority of countries, including the US. Among other things, the Treaty stipulates that countries are responsible for the actions of national space organizations, whether governmental or private sector, are obligated to avoid contaminating space and celestial bodies; and must assume liability for any damage they cause.

In America, the government must authorize any outer-space projects, Jacobson says. “Mining on the Moon is not part of the mission authorization, and it will need to get permission,” Jacobson says. The good news is that the US has long embraced change and economic progress.

Frank Oliveri, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the investment-research firm CFRA, is skeptical about plans to create an economy on the Moon. “We have heard these things for a long time, and it is always right around the corner,” he says. “I think we have to see more tangible results and see how that turns out.”