Leadership and Global Conflicts

For leaders, disaster planning has become a necessity. At any given time, a natural disaster, an economic crisis, a terrorist attack, or something else is forcing modern corporate executives to act quickly to protect their businesses and stakeholders. Leaders have of course had to sharpen those skills in the wake of the pandemic and subsequent events, from tariffs to geopolitical conflict. 

But when it comes to agility planning, the new fighting in the Middle East may present questions that even leaders tested by prior disruptions might not be aware of or ready for. While leaders might plan to activate backup logistics plans or move workers out of harm’s way, experts say they might overlook critical questions that fly under the radar. “It’s all the confusion around it,” says JP Sniffen, Korn Ferry’s practice leader for the company’s Military Center of Expertise. Here are some of the pressing concerns leaders may not be thinking of:

Supply Chain: Will my firm’s needs take a back seat to a defense contractor’s?

Closings of air routes and shipping lanes are disrupting the flow of parts and products around the Middle East. But those changes will likely only delay, not derail, the movement of goods. “Outside of the oil and gas industry, or the energy sector as a whole, we don’t think there will be much disruption in the global supply chain,” says Gordon Bowen, area leader for Korn Ferry’s Supply Chain and Operations Center of Expertise.

That said, experts caution that some leaders may not grasp the need for contingency plans—for instance, if any of their firm’s critical components are also commonly found in ammunition. Thanks to a law first enacted in 1950, the US president can mandate that US companies prioritize government contracts deemed necessary for national defense—suspending those companies’ obligation to meet civilian, commercial, or other orders. For the moment, that law hasn’t been a factor in the current conflict. But US stockpiles are already running short, and the government hasn’t hesitated to take such action in the past, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the law was used to secure ventilators and protective equipment, as well as the goods and services needed to develop and manufacture a vaccine.

Marketing: Will people stop buying our stuff?

The answer to this question likely depends on whether leaders are running a retail- or a business-focused firm. Sales certainly could become harder to come by in areas close to the fighting. In Dubai and other major Middle Eastern shopping hubs, many stores are closed. Airline and cruise operators with a heavy presence in the Middle East probably will lose sales.

Over the last 30-plus years, retail sales have fallen almost immediately every time the US has gotten directly involved in a Middle East conflict. In January 1991, at the beginning of the first Gulf War, US retail sales fell 2.2%. In September 2001, the figure dropped even further, to 2.4%, which experts interpreted as a clear sign that the September 11 attacks were keeping shoppers away from stores. “When folks are nervous, they usually don’t buy with wild abandon,” says Craig Rowley, a Korn Ferry senior client partner specializing in retail.

The answer is not quite as clear for business-to-business sales. Firms that rely on energy supplies from the Middle East certainly will see their shipments delayed, which in turn could prevent them from manufacturing and selling their products. But security- and defense-focused firms could see a sales boost as governments replenish goods depleted during a prolonged conflict.

Security: Are my customers safe?

Of course, leaders with employees in the conflict zones are wondering how to keep them safe. But experts say they should ask whether their customers are safe, too, even those who may be thousands of miles away from the Middle East. Barely 24 hours after the US started its air campaign, an assailant angered by the fighting walked into a Texas bar and allegedly started shooting people. Organizations with lots of foot traffic, be they retailers, financial institutions, or professional-sports organizations, might want to evaluate their security procedures. “You have thousands of people who walk through the door. It’s something to monitor with genuine concern,” says Sniffen.

The concern isn’t only for people’s physical well-being. The various combatants are all adept in the use of electronics and cyberwarfare, which could put customer privacy and data at risk. For instance, the US Department of Defense has 61,000 personnel and 9,500 contractors as part of a cyberspace-operations workforce. Alternatively, in May and June 2025, there were 28 specific cyberattacks tied to groups aligned with Iran, according to Nozomi Networks, a security-detection firm. The majority of those targets were US companies, not the US government.

Talent Management: Will I lose my military-affiliated employees to call-ups?

Many leaders are scrambling to make sure their employees in the Middle East are safe or can get to safety. Far from the battlefields, however, they should be wondering whether any military reservists on their teams could be activated. The answer, at least in the short term, is likely to be no, Sniffen says: Reservists usually aren’t activated when combat is being conducted from the air.

Things could change if the fighting lasts longer than 90 days. At that point, the US president must seek congressional approval for further military operations. Another big change would be if ground troops are deployed into a combat zone. For the moment, leaders overseeing military-reservist employees have some time to make backup plans in the event that those employees are called up.

Leadership: What do I tell my employees?

Whenever fighting breaks out, citizens of the countries involved can become anxious, even if they are nowhere near it. Social media can amplify that anxiety. Talking transparently about how the conflict does—or does not—impact the business could at least ease some of the distress employees may be feeling. “Being a voice for calm in an era of uncertainty could be valuable,” says Scott Sette, a Korn Ferry senior client partner in the firm’s Global Healthcare Services practice.

Importantly, don’t ignore employees' questions, says Richard Marshall, Korn Ferry’s global managing director of its Corporate Affairs Center of Expertise. “No doubt some will have family, friends, or relatives in the region,” he says, observing that leaders can acknowledge and share the concern in a short statement without political overtones.

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