Growing Nowhere?

The threat of a recession appears to be in the rearview mirror. The impact of tariffs has already been absorbed by most firms. And markets are still on the rise. But ask CEOs about that nagging issue of many years—corporate growth—and many appear to be out of answers.

Even amid brighter economic and tariff news, less than one-third of CEOs in a new global survey are confident revenue will grow this year, a decline from the 38% who felt that way in 2024. More telling, CEO confidence in annual revenue growth has fallen by almost half since its post-pandemic peak of 56% in 2022. That’s in part because uncertainty about everything from AI to geopolitical events continues to rattle future plans, says Neil Collins, leader of the Global Industrial Markets practice in North America for Korn Ferry. “Even CEOs and CFOs with deep knowledge of the sectors are finding it hard to plan for all the potential different contingencies,” he says. 

Experts say the survey results suggest doom and gloom has become a permanent mindset for many business leaders, much as it has for workforces. To be sure, the lack of confidence in revenue growth is consistent with other surveys showing economic volatility and geopolitical instability to be among the top risks to business performance this year. It also mirrors data showing that more and more public companies paused or withdrew revenue and earnings guidance as tariffs took hold in 2025. 

Put another way, leaders feel like they have their own businesses under control—it’s everyone else’s they’re worried about. Increased dependence on third-party vendors, for instance, creates more exposure to cyber breaches. Changes in the political landscape can alter supply chains in an instant. “There’s still a ton of uncertainty across the global business ecosystem,” says Collins.  

To be sure, the pessimism is coming more from international markets than from the US, says Torrey Foster, a vice chairman in the Consumer and CEO and Board Services practices at Korn Ferry. In the US, he says, leaders are feeling pretty good about the economy. GDP in the US grew 2% last year, while earnings growth at S&P 500 companies came in at around 10%, even after the impact of tariffs. Leaders are starting to get a handle on AI, and inflation is beginning to come down. “The consensus is that the US market is less uncertain than last year, while other markets are more uncertain,” says Foster. The data bears that out: CEO confidence in Europe, Asia, and other regions comes in as low as, or lower than, that of their US counterparts. 

The problem, experts say, is that uncertainty anywhere can create paralysis everywhere. According to the survey, one-third of CEOs globally say they are less likely to make large new investments this year. It’s a familiar refrain, but with uncertainty more a feature than a bug in budgeting now, leaders need to find new ways to jump-start growth, say experts. AI is a big bet, of course, but for most firms, the payoff is still a few years away. Instead, experts say leaders are focused on shoring up go-to-market strategies and figuring out where to direct marketing efforts to drive topline growth. But, achieving growth ambitions that way can be difficult, says Tamara Rodman, a senior client partner in the Culture, Change, and Communications practice at Korn Ferry. “Sooner or later, leaders are going to stop holding back and make big decisions on how to grow their businesses,” she says. 

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