The 30-Minute Economy

Billie was elbow-deep in a recipe when she realized that the reddish spice in her rack was not paprika, but chili powder. Shoot. She needed the paprika. She picked up her phone, pulled up her Amazon account, searched for paprika, and scheduled an immediate delivery. Even so, she was shocked by the promised time: 30 minutes.

For customers in Seattle and Philadelphia, thirty-minutes-or-less paprika delivery is a reality, thanks to beta testing for Amazon Now, the company’s new courier option. The expedited deliveries—$4 for Prime members, $14 for non-members—are part of the growing US speed-delivery market, currently valued at $62 billion but expected to reach $83 billion by 2030. As items appear on doorsteps mere minutes after they’ve been ordered, retail experts predict a shift in shopper norms. Simply put, two-day delivery will soon feel like an eternity. “Retailers are going to have to think long and hard about managing customer expectations about when items will be delivered,” says Craig Rowley, senior client partner at Korn Ferry.

Ultimately, some experts say hyper delivery could poach shoppers from brick-and-mortar stores, since some won’t need to make quick drop-ins anymore. “This is a clear threat to retailers in the long term,” says Rowley. But for now, he says, it’s a pretty small market. Indeed, the list of items that experts believe customers will order for fast delivery is fairly short: forgotten recipe ingredients, hygiene supplies (like diapers or tampons), medications (cold and flu pills, COVID tests, etc.), lost laptop chargers, perhaps coffee or alcohol. A warehouse located within a mile or two can easily oversee such a limited product inventory, as well as provide 30-minute delivery.

But making deliveries so quickly while also turning a profit will be an enormous challenge for other retailers who might try it. Distribution centers need to be a mile or two away, a difficult proposition amid the low density and traffic of the suburbs. In any location, hand delivery of paprika will likely be a loss leader. “They’re building customer loyalty by providing something customers want—it’s brilliant,” says Rowley. Box-store retailers, many of which already have some of the infrastructure needed for speed delivery, are paying close attention.

Experts advise retailers to be careful with their messaging for these services, as hyper-fast service will set a new norm for delivery times that cannot be met for most products. (If you’ve tried to order, say, a size-small knee brace, you know these common, but not constantly ordered items can take days or weeks to arrive.) “Less popular items have been disappearing off the shelves since COVID,” says retail expert Denise Kramp, senior client partner at Korn Ferry, and will continue to do so, she adds, as AI allocation and distribution models evolve.

Specialists expect the utter-convenience model to expand to contexts beyond retail, such as the workplace. “Employees might expect real-time feedback on performance, or faster decisions if they’re applying for a new job,” says Maria Amato, senior client partner at Korn Ferry.

A glance at Dubai suggests where all of this might be going, says Iktimal Daneshvar: The Dubai-based Korn Ferry vice president can order items like groceries and flowers for arrival within fifteen minutes, and her coworkers’ dinners are delivered their doorsteps before they get home. Even if you forget to fill the tank before heading to work, she says, a high-speed courier can help you: “You can get petrol delivered to your car in 20 minutes.”

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