The Hottest Job in 2032? They’re Out of Work Now.

It’s been the one job that nobody looking for job security has wanted lately. Indeed, across many industries, firms worldwide have been cutting managers by the ten of thousands, either belittling them as unnecessary middle people or arguing that flatter organizational hierarchies perform better.

But has the corporate world gone too far? A surprising study from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce projects managers to be among the most sought-after roles by 2032. According to the new report on skills shortages, firms are expected to face a shortage of 2.9 million managers—a deficit that trumps other much-discussed shortages, such as those affecting nurses (362,000), teachers (611,000), and engineers (210,000). This comes at a time when firms are holding off on hiring for many entry-level jobs, which is also limiting the pipeline of future managers. “If most companies do this, we’re not going to be developing managers,” says HR expert Ron Porter, senior partner at Korn Ferry. “That leads to a talent war.”

Talent wars are rarely good for businesses: When fewer candidates are available, compensation rises and talent quality drops. “Supply is shallow, and people are often pushed into jobs a couple of years before they’re actually ready,” says Porter. Companies have been openly trimming their managers since the pandemic; recently, some major firms announced cuts of 20%.

“Managers have been an easy target,” says Iktimal Daneshvar, EMEA vice president for RPO at Korn Ferry. Middle managers are typically plentiful, and also well-compensated enough that axing them brings corporate savings. As a result, managers—of the still employed variety—are now notably less numerous: US public companies cut their middle-managers by 6.1% as of the end of last year, according to figures from employment-data company Live Data Technologies. Experts say that the manager pipeline is further constricted by uncertainty, which is leading companies to press pause on hiring incoming employees, especially in roles that AI might soon augment or replace. Unemployment rates for young workers (ages 22 to 27) currently stand at 7.4%, which is nearly double the overall unemployment rate for all workers of 4.0%.  

Workplace watchers still encourage workers to pursue management careers, though not necessarily through the college or business-school degree programs that are currently available to them. With AI looming, experts say, the roles of future managers, not to mention their staff, are likely to change drastically in the next year or two. “I think in the future, these roles will require smarts for which current education programs will not equip people,” says Cheryl D’Cruz-Young, senior client partner in the Global Energy practice at Korn Ferry.  

The Georgetown study, of course, is looking many years ahead. Even amid the uncertainty around management, experts still advise taking the plunge. “If it’s something you have a passion for,” says Porter. “Standouts are always in demand.”  

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