The AI Apocalypse: Where Does it Stand?

It’s a fear that has gripped today’s workers: AI will make them unemployable. Earlier this summer, the CEO of one of the most popular AI services said the technology could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs, and spike US unemployment to 20%, within five years. But a growing number of experts are starting to wonder if the once-in-a-generation technology will be that destructive—or just more disruptive.

It’s understandable that doomsday predictions have gained traction in some circles. The unemployment rate of young college graduates has jumped, while the average time people spend unemployed is nearly six months, near a post-pandemic high. At the same time, it’s no secret that many leaders are looking at how AI can reduce expenses—and employee costs often represent the largest share. Last year, 41% of bosses said they’ll likely need to reduce their workforce in the next five years because of AI, according to a survey of 1,000 global employers by the World Economic Forum. More recently, the leaders of several high-profile technology-driven firms said they’ve already laid people off and delegated their work to AI.

But experts point out that the unemployment rate in the US has remained relatively low, at around 4%, for some time now, even as ChatGPT and other AI tools seep into the workplace. Many firms appear to be shifting their workers away from the routine tasks AI can handle and deploying them into new and opportunistic areas. “Don’t put your head in sand: Get ready,” says Bryan Ackermann, Korn Ferry’s head of AI strategy and transformation. 

To be sure, the business world has a long history of ignoring major tech changes until it is too late (the internet is a glaring example). But at least in the short term, few firms seem to be preparing for an AI apocalypse. According to a soon-to-be released Korn Ferry survey of 250 CEOS and directors worldwide, about 40% percent of leaders think AI will replace less than 10% of their firm’s roles within the next two to three years. That is likely to include many at the entry level, but even so, experts point out that few firms would slash these positions to the bone. Firstly, those roles often are the lowest-paid in an organization. And secondly, today’s entry-level employees are tomorrow’s potential managers and executives. “You eliminate a leadership pipeline,” says Shanda Mints, Korn Ferry’s vice president of RPO analytics and implementation. 

Experts recommend that leaders think of AI as an organization enhancer and not an expense destroyer. “It’s an enormous opportunity to perform and transform,” Ackermann says. If it hasn’t done so already, AI will free up space in the day for a worker to do other things. Some leaders likely will bank the savings and just cut payroll. But the savvier ones, experts say, will ask themselves how to use that time to advance the organization. For instance, the executives at a company with a sales force of 10,000 know that AI will streamline the time it takes for sales to happen. There’s still plenty that those salespeople can do, however. “The firm is now reevaluating who does what,” says Mathias Herzog, president of Korn Ferry’s Global Technology practice. Other companies are partnering with universities to incorporate AI into their curricula while also teaching the hard and soft skills that will help young professionals excel once they hit the working world.

Workers will have a say in the future as well. By learning how to use AI, they can literally add “superpowers,” Ackermann says, enhancing their skills and opening up their career options. “They are more valuable in the professional world, whether or not organizations recognize it,” he says.

Learn more about Korn Ferry’s Future of Work capabilities. 

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